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Volume 18 Issue 2 Feb 2025
Gulf of Tehuantepec Surges
Jeffrey Springer

Tehuantepecer wind events are powerful, sudden bursts of wind that surge across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico, racing from the Gulf of Mexico into the Pacific Ocean. These winds can reach hurricane-force speeds, sometimes exceeding 60 knots, and create dangerous sea conditions with steep waves and confused seas. Mariners and meteorologists alike pay close attention to these events, as they can pose serious hazards to vessels navigating the Gulf of Tehuantepec. While these gales are most common during the winter months, they can occur at any time of year when conditions align to funnel winds through this narrow land corridor.

Beginning stages of a Tehuantepecer

Meteorologically, Tehuantepecers are caused by the interaction of high-pressure systems over North America and lower pressure in the tropical Pacific. When a strong cold front pushes southward into the Gulf of Mexico, it can drive a pressure gradient that accelerates winds through the Chivela Pass (a narrow gap in the Sierra Madre Mountains). The resulting winds are then funneled and intensified as they spill into the Pacific, creating a broad area of gale- to storm-force winds. These events can persist for several days, rapidly building seas up to 20 feet or more in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Within the eastern Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds can fan out and become northwesterly, which can become a concern for vessels approaching from the east. Additionally, effects from the winds and seas can be felt as far as 100nm offshore.

Peaking winds during the Tehuantepecer

For maritime operations, Tehuantepecer wind events present significant challenges. Ships traveling between the Panama Canal and ports along the western coast of Mexico and the United States must carefully plan routes to avoid the worst of the winds and waves. When a strong event is forecast, vessels may choose to either delay passage or take a wide detour to the south, beyond the most hazardous region. However, depending on the strength of the Tehuantepecer, it is usually safer to just delay passage. If caught in deteriorating conditions, mariners may seek refuge in ports such as Puerto Chiapas to the east or Puerto Escondido and La Crucecita to the west. Smaller yachts and fishing boats, in particular, must exercise extreme caution, as the rapid onset of these winds can turn the Gulf of Tehuantepec into a hazardous zone in a matter of hours. In cases of weaker surges, vessels can route coastal along the Gulf of Tehuantepec to minimize fetch and larger seas offshore.

Utilizing SeaWeather to see the early stages of a Tehuantepecer

The Tehuantepecer has an interesting parallel to the Mistral, a fierce wind that affects the Gulf de Lion in the Mediterranean Sea (See article from May 2024 on Mistrals). Like the Tehuantepecer, the Mistral results from cold air surging southward through a topographic gap, which in this case, the Rhone Valley in southern France. While the Mistral is typically longer lived and more predictable than Tehuantepecers, both winds share a common trait: they create treacherous marine conditions that can catch mariners off guard. The sudden, violent onset of these winds highlights the importance of meteorological awareness and strategic navigation.

Predicting peak conditions during a Tehuantepecer, 16 hours after the initial image

Weather Routing Inc. (WRI) closely monitors Tehuantepecer wind events, especially during the winter months when they are most frequent and intense. Advanced forecasting models and satellite observations allow for accurate predictions of wind speed, duration, and sea state, enabling captains to make informed decisions about their routes. Captains planning voyages through the Gulf of Tehuantepec should consult with professionals, such as WRI, to receive customized forecasts and route recommendations that enhance safety and efficiency. Proactive planning and our expert guidance can help vessels avoid the worst impacts of these powerful surges, ensuring smoother and safer transits.

Tropics in the SW Pacific
Brian Whitley, Operations Manager/Senior Meteorologist

The SW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season is well underway and, as of the writing of this article, it has become very active with three tropical cyclones ongoing at this time (Rae, Seru, and Alfred from east to west). In this article we'll investigate the season so far and the features that will drive how the remainder of the season behaves.

In the SW Pacific, the climatological average is for about ten tropical cyclones to form and the season runs from November 01st to April 30th. So far this season, there have been four Tropical Cyclones (including the three mentioned above).


Figure 1: Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Note the waters in the Coral Sea being 1-2 degrees above normal.

There are many weather factors that go into evaluating a seasonal forecast, but two of the greatest are sea surface temperature anomalies and the status of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation). Right now, there is a weak La Nina in place across the Equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea and E'ward toward French Polynesia is above average by about 1-2 degrees C. This is more pronounced within the Coral Sea compared to farther east. Tropical activity for the SW Pacific tends to be more active during La Nina years, in particular within the Coral Sea.

 

Figures 2 and 3: Historical Tropical Cyclone tracks for La Nina years (top) and El Nino (bottom). Note that while the overall number of systems is similar (due to El Nino being somewhat more common compared to La Nina), there is a W'ward shift toward the Coral Sea as well as a S'ward shift during the La Nina years.

Given that both of these parameters point toward a more active-than-normal season, it stands to reason that all things being equal it is more likely than not that by the end of the season at the end of April, there will likely have been more than normal tropical cyclones, suggesting that despite a somewhat slow start, the tropics will remain threatening for the next couple of months.

As always, WRI is ready to assist any of our clients to make informed decisions as to when and how to safely navigate tropical waters. Our customized forecasting and routing allows you to be assisted by degreed marine meteorologists and our tropical surveillance products are available also keep you informed regarding where tropical cyclones are, where they are expected to track, and also provide you with advance notice of expected tropical cyclone development.

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